The recent commentary by Oseni Rufai and Reuben Abati on Arise TV, critiquing the position of Edo State Governor, Senator Monday Okpebholo, calls for a necessary clarification grounded in facts, context, and a proper appreciation of subnational political dynamics.
At the outset, it is important to restate that Governor Okpebholo’s remarks during his interview on Channels Television were neither speculative nor politically convenient assertions. Rather, they were informed by empirical observations, electoral data, and a deep understanding of Edo State’s political behavior, insights available to him as the sitting governor and chief custodian of the state’s political pulse.
The claim that Edo State is positioned to deliver 2.5m votes to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu reflects not mere optimism, but a reading of evolving governance outcomes and public sentiment. Historically, Edo’s electorate has demonstrated a discernible pattern: voting anchored on perceived performance rather than transient emotional waves.
This reality was exemplified during the tenure of Adams Oshiomhole, whose re-election against formidable incumbency forces established the state’s pragmatic voting culture. Against a very hostile opposition Federal Government and ruthless federal and state actors bent on reclaiming the state and realigning it with the PDP federal government, Adams Oshiomhole in 2012 due to his superlative performance in his first tenure, not only won his reelection in a landslide victory, but set a new record of being the first governor in the state’s history to win all 18 local governments areas.
In 2023, Edo Central Senatorial District again demonstrated this pattern by voting against the then sitting senator, Senator Clifford Ordia who they perceived to have performed below expectations. This consistency voting pattern based on performance and integrity was what launched Governor Okpebholo into the political spotlight and in this has been the voting pattern in the state since inception.
It is within this established context that Governor Okpebholo referenced the 2023 electoral outcome involving Peter Obi. His position that the result in Edo was significantly influenced by administrative lapses under the immediate past government led by Godwin Obaseki is neither dismissive nor reductionist. It is, instead, a contextual interpretation rooted in local realities.
Attempting to generalise this outcome across states such as Lagos or Delta overlooks the fundamental truth that Nigeria’s electoral landscape is not monolithic; each state operates within its own socio-political ecosystem.
While media analysis remains a vital component of democratic discourse, it must be exercised with intellectual discipline and contextual sensitivity. The tendency to universalise electoral trends or to conflate distinct political environments risks oversimplification. Edo State’s voting history, demographic structure, and political consciousness differ markedly from other regions, and any serious analysis must reflect this complexity.
On the issue of national security, Governor Okpebholo’s comments align with a broader, globally acknowledged understanding: that security challenges, while present, are neither unique to Nigeria nor immune to contextual interpretation. His perspective speaks to patterns observable within the country and reflects the informed judgment expected of a state chief executive who engages directly with grassroots realities.
Furthermore, the projection regarding Edo’s electoral contribution should be seen as a strategic political forecast, not an arbitrary figure. Governance, after all, is not conducted in abstraction. It is informed by ongoing engagements, developmental strides, and measurable shifts in public perception. The governor’s confidence is therefore anchored in what he perceives daily across communities, institutions, and stakeholder interactions.
It is also pertinent to underscore that journalism, at its highest standard, demands balance, depth, and responsibility. Critique, while essential, must not devolve into dismissiveness or presumptive authority. Public discourse benefits most when it is guided by evidence-based reasoning rather than sweeping generalisations.
Governor Okpebholo’s position is a reflection of informed leadership, grounded in empirical realities and historical precedent. Edo State’s political trajectory has consistently rewarded performance and accountability, and it is within this enduring framework that his projections and interpretations must be understood.
