Global oil benchmarks surged past $83 per barrel on Tuesday, propelled by escalating U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iran that have crippled key Gulf energy infrastructure, from Qatar’s largest LNG facility to Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery, amid a near-total shutdown of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
This comes as filling stations across Nigeria raised petrol prices to as much as N980 per litre following an increase in the ex-depot price by the Dangote Refinery on Monday.
U.S. President Donald Trump signalled the campaign could stretch four to five weeks or longer, intensifying fears of prolonged supply disruptions that have already sent Brent crude up 7.8 per cent to $83.81 and West Texas Intermediate up 8.4 per cent to $77.23 — their highest levels since mid-2024.
The Brent–WTI premium ballooned to $8 per barrel, the widest since November 2022, signalling robust support for U.S. crude exports amid the chaos.
The conflict’s rapid escalation has triggered unprecedented disruptions: Qatar shuttered the world’s largest LNG export facility, Saudi Arabia suspended operations at its biggest oil refinery, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil and LNG — has ground to a near halt.
Iraq slashed output at the massive Rumaila oil field and stands ready to idle up to 3 million barrels per day if the crisis drags on, with storage strained by Hormuz bottlenecks.
Iraq’s Kirkuk crude loadings to Turkey’s Ceyhan port ceased entirely, Iraqi Kurdistan production evaporated, Israel idled some gas fields, and the UAE’s Fujairah port battled a serious fire sparked by the turmoil.
Insurers have withdrawn coverage for vessels transiting through Hormuz after Iranian media warned of firing on any ships attempting passage, sending oil and gas shipping rates soaring.
Tankers and container ships are now avoiding the waterway, compounding export woes. Saudi Aramco is scrambling to reroute crude via the Red Sea to sidestep the risks.
ING analysts warned that while there are concerns about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a greater risk would be Iran targeting additional energy infrastructure… leading to more prolonged outages.
Lipow Oil Associates’ Andrew Lipow told Reuters that Brent could hit $90 or beyond if Iranian strikes persist.
Since Israel’s initial attacks on Saturday, the war has expanded: Israel struck Lebanon and Iran retaliated against Gulf energy sites and Hormuz tankers, with fears mounting of further infrastructure damage.
Gas analysts have described this as the gravest energy market jolt since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with global stock markets tumbling in response.
“With no rapid de-escalation in view, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut off,” noted IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, leaving “room for further upward risks that intensify the longer the conflict continues.”
Filling Stations Raise Petrol Prices to N980
The global oil shock hit home in Nigeria on Tuesday as filling stations nationwide hiked pump prices, with some reaching N980 per litre from Abuja to Lagos and other parts of the country.
Checks showed that MRS Oil Nigeria Plc and NNPC Limited raised their prices from N875 to N975 per litre in the capital, while Empire Energy increased prices to N980 from N880. AYM Shafa and AA Rano added N80 to reach N960, triggered by the Dangote Refinery’s Monday gantry price hike to N874 per litre from N774.
A senior official, who confirmed the increase to Vanguard, said:
“The revision became necessary due to changes in global crude fundamentals and replacement costs.”
In Ogun State’s Magboro area, AP sold at N930 — the only outlet open — while GOA Energy at N920 locked its gates.
Lagos’ Marina NNPC station dispensed fuel at N932 (up from N837), with queues swelling amid fears of scarcity. Maryland’s Northwest sold at N940.
Motorists voiced frustration at bus stops and filling stations.
“I don’t know if there is about to be scarcity or the normal adjustment of prices,” one said at Marina.
Early closures in Abuja left many stranded, mirroring nationwide panic-buying as Brent’s surge — tied directly to Hormuz disruption and Gulf shutdowns — filtered through to local pumps.
The conflict’s expansion, including Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian attacks on Gulf tankers and infrastructure, has placed a fifth of global oil and LNG flows at risk.
Iraq halted Kirkuk loadings to Turkey, Iraqi Kurdistan output has ceased, and Israel’s gas fields are offline. ECOWAS analysts linked the developments to Africa’s debt and currency depreciation challenges, with Nigeria — exporting crude but importing refined fuel — bracing for compounded inflationary pressure.
As Trump vows sustained bombardment, the IMF’s fluid outlook and ECOWAS’ call for diplomacy underscore a precarious path ahead, with Nigerian pumps already reflecting the strain.
IMF, ECOWAS Warn of Price Spikes, Market Chaos, African Vulnerabilities
The International Monetary Fund issued a stark statement on Tuesday, flagging “disruptions to trade and economic activity, surges in energy prices, and volatility in financial markets” as the Middle East crisis compounds global uncertainty.
“We are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East,” the IMF said. “The situation remains highly fluid… That impact will depend on the extent and duration of the conflict.”
A comprehensive assessment is scheduled for the April World Economic Outlook.
Echoing these concerns, the Economic Community of West African States — under Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio — urged all parties to “exercise maximum restraint and adhere strictly to international law, warning of severe ripple effects for Africa.
The bloc highlighted West Africa’s dual exposure as oil exporters reliant on imported refined products, predicting “domestic inflation, currency pressures and rising transport and food costs”
Stemming from Gulf volatility.
Disruptions to Hormuz-linked trade routes could exacerbate post-COVID supply chain fragilities, hitting food-import-dependent nations hardest, ECOWAS noted, aligning with the African Union’s call for de-escalation through dialogue.
Stock markets tumbled worldwide as analysts compared the turmoil to the biggest energy shock since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Qatar halted its world’s largest LNG export facility, Saudi Arabia suspended its leading refinery, Iraq slashed output at the Rumaila field — potentially idling 3 million barrels per day — and the UAE’s Fujairah port grappled with a major fire.
Aramco is rerouting crude to the Red Sea to avoid Hormuz risks, where insurers have withdrawn coverage and Iran has threatened to fire on passing ships.
Gas experts offer mixed assessments.
“High oil and gas prices are in principle good news for alternative technologies,” said Thijs Van de Graaf of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, arguing they make solar panels and heat pumps more competitive.
However, David Hostert of BloombergNEF cautioned that inflation could trigger interest rate hikes, increasing costs for capital-intensive renewables.
“It’s a bit of a Rorschach test of what you want to see,” he said.
Kingsmill Bond of Ember predicted Asian nations might pivot from gas to coal or domestic alternatives, while Antony Froggatt of Transport and Environment stressed that energy remains “the lifeblood of our economies.”
ING analysts reiterated that Iranian strikes on additional infrastructure could prolong outages, while Lipow forecast Brent at $90 or higher.
The Brent–WTI spread widened to $8 — its highest since 2022 — strengthening U.S. export competitiveness.
