By Mogaji Wole Arisekola.
The Rise of the Naira and the Fall of Common Sense
By Mogaji Wole Arisekola.
Today, the Naira–Dollar exchange rate has fallen to ₦1,450 per dollar—the lowest level since June 2024. My inbox has been flooded with questions: “Mogaji, why is the dollar crashing?” But let’s be clear: the dollar isn’t crashing. It’s the Naira that is finally appreciating in value, and honestly, this doesn’t surprise me.
If you belong to the financial literacy community, you already knew this was coming. I’ve been saying since January that 2025 is the year of the Naira—the year our currency will find stability and strength again. I have preached it everywhere: invest in Naira, invest in Naira instruments! For years—2021, 2022, 2023—I didn’t recommend the Nigerian stock market because it simply didn’t make sense. The exchange rate was too volatile, and investing in Naira then was like filling a leaking bucket. But now, the game has changed.
So why is the Naira appreciating? Because the fundamentals are finally aligning. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s painful policies—those that brought hardship in 2023—are now showing results. The unification of exchange rates and removal of fuel subsidies were bitter pills, but necessary ones. Inflation is falling, and for the first time in years, prices are no longer rising every hour. In 2024, you could buy something in the morning and find that by evening, the price had doubled—or worse, the seller would refuse to sell at all because “price don change.” That chaos is gradually disappearing.
Today, the economy is becoming more predictable. People who once hoarded dollars are now saving in Naira. Even those earning in dollars are converting to invest locally. This shift has reduced pressure on the foreign exchange market, leaving more dollars available for legitimate trade and expenses.
A major contributor to this new wave of stability is the Dangote Refinery. For the first time in decades, Nigeria no longer depends entirely on imported petrol. The refinery has drastically reduced our import bills and kept precious dollars within the economy. Although a few importers still bring in petrol for selfish reasons, the truth remains that the country now spends far less on fuel importation. When you visit Bureau de Change operators today, you’ll see how narrow the gap between the official and parallel market rates has become. It’s simple economics—more dollar supply, less demand, lower prices.
Another factor is our trade balance. During his Independence Day address, President Tinubu revealed that Nigeria now has a net export surplus of about 4%. That’s a monumental shift from 2022 and 2023, when we were bleeding from trade deficits. Now, we are producing and selling more than we import. If we maintain this pace, Nigeria could soon reclaim its rightful position as the true Giant of Africa—not in slogans, but in substance.
Love or hate Tinubu, the truth is that the economy is improving. Food prices are easing. Rice and beans are cheaper now than they were early this year. The stock market is booming; some Nigerian stocks have appreciated by over 400%. Bonds, mutual funds, and commercial papers are glowing green. Foreign investors are returning. The Naira may even close the year stronger—perhaps ₦1,400 or less to the dollar.
But while the Naira is rising, morality in governance is falling. During the Second Republic, the largest donors to the National Party of Nigeria were true businessmen—Alhaji Ishaku Ibrahim, Chief M.K.O. Abiola, Alhaji Abdul Azeez Arisekola Alao, and Prince Arthur Eze. They made their money in business and brought their wealth into politics. Today, however, political financiers are mostly civil servants and politicians—people who have never run a successful business yet somehow have billions to sponsor elections.
Only in Nigeria does a man retire from civil service on Friday and bankroll an election by Monday—with nobody asking questions, even under the so-called government of integrity. Some are still in service while secretly sponsoring political parties. Who will question them? After all, their kinsmen are the commanders-in-thief.
Look at the case of Godwin Emefiele, the former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. While in office, he presided over a controversial currency redesign that inflicted untold suffering on poor Nigerians. Yet, even as the country struggled under that misguided policy, Emefiele was allegedly making political moves to contest for the presidency while still in office—a gross violation of public trust. Today, despite all that damage, some lawyers are still defending him in court, trying to wash a stained conscience with legal grammar. That tells you how deeply our system has rotted.
But my greatest disappointment is with Nigerian youths—the supposed leaders of tomorrow—who have become unpaid defenders of these same oppressors. They cheer them online, scream “ARISE SIR,” and fight anyone who dares to speak the truth. They’ve traded their future for crumbs. They are told that the future belongs to them, but which future? There’s no future for the children of the oppressed when their fathers’ chains have become bracelets on their wrists.
The oppressors enslaved their parents, and now their children are enslaving them. Their unborn children will enslave the next generation. It’s a generational curse, and only true deliverance—mental, moral, and spiritual—can break it.
We’ve been warning you: these brainless mobs on the internet are nothing but educated illiterates. When some of them refused to see travel and exposure as part of education, we chose the path of honour and left our comfort zones to seek knowledge abroad. Islam is very clear on the importance of seeking knowledge, even outside one’s birthplace.
What Nigeria’s so-called elites and their blind followers need now isn’t just economic reform—it’s moral rehabilitation. They need proper training on integrity, common sense, and how to handle sensitive information responsibly.
The Naira is rising, yes. But can our conscience rise with it?
My name is Wole Arisekola, and I’m writing from my house in Ibadan.
