Yari and the battle to reclaim Zamfara for APC

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In the North, Senator Abdulazeez Yari, former governor of Zamfara State, has attracted attention as one of the dependable ally of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The Senator representing Zamfara West District is the leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Zamfara. Currently, the state is being governed by Dauda Lawal of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The question is: can he and other APC leaders lead the party to victory during the 2027 governorship poll? Can APC bounce back in Zamfara?

APC suffered a curious stress during the protracted rift between Yari and Senator Kabiru Marafa, who has called it quits with the progressive platform. Lack of reconciliation spelled doom. Faulty congresses pave the way for failure.

Politics, sometimes, is characterised by shifting allegiances and self-interest. But, Yari, since his foray into the APC, has tried to overcome the challenge of loyalty. The perception of his role and stature has changed from a tactician driven by mere ambition to a man of fidelity who has stuck to the president and worthy political causes. He has also been a risk taker.

Ahead of the next general election, some northern elements are coming with rumours of ballot war and blackmailing the president. They have hired spin doctors to peddle falseholds and demarket the president, despite his impressive scorecard. Yari has distanced himself from the subjective assessors and come out boldly to endorse the President’s re-election bid.

At the recent APC northern stakeholders’ meeting, the former governor publicly reaffirmed his support for President Tinubu, saying: “He is our president. We must stand by him. The time for political games is over; we must unite behind him.”

It was not the first time he stood on the side of truth and reality. During the politically tense months leading to the 2022 APC presidential primary and the 2023 general election, Yari, was said to have quietly, but effectively sided with Tinubu, when some powerful people in former President Muhammadu Buhari’s inner circle worked to undermine him the Jagaban.

Thus, as a powerbroker in his own right, he defied the odds, resisted pressure from Aso Villa and aligned with the future, not just out of political calculation, but with a conviction that the country needed a strong, reliable, resourceful and tested leadership.

The details of the APC succession politics may not have been fully unveiled.

As 2022 rolled in, it became clear that the 2023 presidential election would be very critical in Nigeria’s democratic history. With Buhari completing his constitutional two-terms of eight years, the APC was faced with a monumental challenge – the choice of a fitting successor.

Zoning was on the front burner. But old agreement was about to be discarded. Tension was brewing. While the party had promised to zone the presidential ticket to the South, the inner workings of Buhari’s presidency, especially his tight-knit northern advisory circle, suggested otherwise. Up came some elements trying to project former Senate President Ahmad Lawan on the wings of the former president.

But Asiwaju Tinubu, National Leader of the APC and undisputed strategist, had made clear his intention to run. What followed was a sophisticated attempt by Buhari’s loyalists to stop him, using tools ranging from subtle delegitimisation to weaponisation of a monetary policy.

Some leaders started speaking from two sides of the mouth. APC was about to run into turbulence. In Abeokuta, Ogun State capital, President Tinubu thundered with justification: “It is my turn.”

It was in that heated atmosphere that prominent northerners voiced their support for equity, fairplay and justice. Yari began to distinguish himself, not with fiery speeches or social media campaigns, but through strategic silence, procedural interventions, and quiet resistance to policies and party decisions that were widely perceived to be against the national leader.

Part of the plot was to sideline President Tinubu by imposing a “consensus candidate” for the APC presidential ticket. During the screening of aspirants, Tinubu detected the trap. Asked whether he would embrace a consensus candidacy, he answered in the affirmative, with the condition that that candidate should be hinself.

Names like Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Lawan, and even Rotimi Amaechi, former transportation minister, came up as possible options when anti-Tinubu forces were testing waters. The idea was to craft an elite agreement that would force him out of contention without a proper primary.

Notably, Yari, alongside some like-minds, flatly rejected the plot, insisting that all aspirants must go to the field. During the strategy meetings and at party fora, he opposed any undemocratic consensus arrangement.

“We are not going to accept any consensus arrangement that sidelines other aspirants. Let every aspirant test his popularity. That is the democratic way,” Yari said.

The former governor was also a suspect, being a presidential aspirant at the time. But opposition to the consensus gambit by Yari and others became a lifeline for Tinubu’s campaign. It kept the race open, making it impossible for any backdoor deal to materialise, much as some northern elites accused him of ‘playing the spoiler to pave an easy in-road for an influential southern candidate’.

The political establishment in Abuja had hoped that northern governors and powerbrokers would rally behind Buhari’s preference, whoever that turned out to be. But Yari refused to play along. He was not alone. The impatient and fork-togued Nasir El-Rufai also played a honourable role, despite his initial campaign against Tinubu in Lagos as a godfather who should be stopped.

Yari managed to tactically distance himself from the “Villa cabal,” particularly those who saw Tinubu as a threat to their post-Buhari relevance. Unlike some northern elite, who suddenly became silent, didn’t hedge his bets.

Also, while some aspirants and major players in the APC defected to opposition parties or sat on the fence, he has been giving support for policies and programmes of the Tinubu administration under the Renewed Hope Agenda – from the most popular policies, to some that were earlier misconstrued as inimical to the North.

The refusal to fall in line with the anti-Tinubu campaign may have been costly. He lost out on some political patronage. He was criticised in some quarters of the North for not aligning with the ‘Northern interest’, a euphemism for perpetuating northern control of the presidency. But he stood his ground, even in favour of a southerner.

There were hurdles along the 2023 electoral route.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) naira redesign policy, announced just months before the election, sparked chaos. It was a policy borne out of the ploy to edge Tinubu out.

Endorsed by President Buhari, the policy created a debilitating cash scarcity across the country. In the eyes of the public, the widespread belief was that the policy was designed to weaken Tinubu’s base, which was known to rely heavily on market women, informal traders and grassroots mobilisers, most of whom deal in cash. The plot collapsed in many states.

Yari was one of the few northern voices who openly opposed the policy, warning that it would hurt the common man and destabilise the country’s fragile democracy.

“This policy is anti-people and ill-timed. It will hurt our democracy,” he said in Gusau in February, 2023, during the peak of the crisis.

By joining El-Rufai and former Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello in challenging the policy in court, Yari took a clear stand, not just for his people, but for Tinubu, who was the clear target of the economic chaos.

Following Tinubu’s victory at the polls, many who had previously undermined or distanced themselves from him began to scramble for relevance. Yari, by contrast, did not need to rebrand or realign, he had remained consistent, even if low-key.

However, his ambition to become Senate President was perceived by some as a challenge to Tinubu’s preferred candidate, Godwill Akpabio. His bid was unsuccessful. Yari maintained a respectful posture, explaining that his ambition was based on the Senate’s internal dynamics, not rebellion.

“There is no fight with the President. We are in the same family. We can have different preferences, but the bigger goal is the stability of our party and the progress of Nigeria,” he said.

Last month, with political undercurrents shifting toward the 2027 elections, Yari once again made a defining move. At the APC Northwest Stakeholders meeting in Kaduna, he declared support for Tinubu’s second-term bid, urging the North to throw its weight behind the President.

The hall was filled to the brim with political figures, traditional leaders, and youth leaders.

“We must not allow old wounds or new calculations to divide us. President Tinubu is our leader. He has earned our support. We must stand by him, not just in words, but in action. We must start now,” he said.

It rallying cry to the North, signalling that Yari was ready to play the role of northern stabiliser for Tinubu’s 2027 campaign, much like what Tinubu did for Buhari in 2015.

In politics, loyalty is crucial. But timing defines its value. To stand with a candidate when it is safe to do so is expected. To stand with him when it is risky, costly, and unpopular – these are what define political character.

According to observers, Yari’s loyalty matters because he did not jump on a moving train. He stood against Buhari’s cabal, rejected elite manipulation, opposed policies designed to sabotage Tinubu and defended internal democracy in APC.

A source said as 2027 approaches, the president would need more than just fair-weather allies, regional anchors like Yari, and leaders with both grassroots reach and national vision.

Yari is not without his flaws. He is perceived as a controversial figure in some settings. He has been the subject of investigations by the anti-graft agencies. Also, he has not been insulated from political controversies. But in the turbulent season leading up to Tinubu’s rise, Yari showed political courage, strategic foresight, and loyalty, at a time when betrayal was more profitable.

However, Yari should first of all rally other APC leaders in Zamfara to reclaim the state from PDP. He should work with Bello Metawall, Minister of State for Defence, in repositioning APC in the state. He has a foe in Marafa, who would fire salvos at him and his party. Yari’s support for Tinubu would be more meaningful if APC bounces to reckoning in the Northwest state and he also delivers the state to Tinubu during the general election.

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