The late General Sani Abacha once warned that if terrorism lasts more than 72 hours, the government must have a hand in it.
Today, his words echo like a siren across Nigeria — because nothing explains the chaos unfolding in this country more accurately.
This sudden surge in terrorism didn’t appear from thin air. After weeks of digging, analyzing, and speaking to people with knowledge, the most striking explanation came from a younger friend of mine — now a brother — a serving military officer outside Nigeria, a man who has seen the world from a vantage point Nigerians rarely access.
He didn’t hesitate.
“Mogaji,” he said, “President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made a tactical error by appointing a Fulani man, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, as National Security Adviser.”
I asked him to break it down because Ribadu is someone I know personally, and there is no doubt he is one of the finest police officers Nigeria has produced.
But my friend sighed and continued:
“Ribadu’s competence is not the issue. Nigeria runs on deep tribal suspicion. You wrote last week that 90% of Boko Haram fighters are Kanuri and 99% of bandits are Fulani. Fine. But do you really understand the historic animosity between the Fulani and Kanuri?”
I told him I did. My relationships across Northern Nigeria are built on genuine respect, not this newly manufactured political friendship of convenience.
He leaned in:
“Most Fulani bandits are illiterates, but don’t underestimate their psychology. The moment they heard that one of their own is NSA, they became overconfident. They behaved the same under Buhari. They don’t need to meet Ribadu — knowing a Fulani controls national security is enough reassurance.
The Fulani operate as a global brotherhood. Religion doesn’t break that bond. I’ve sat with the Sultan multiple times. He introduced me to Fulani Christian ministers — he’s their patron. The Sultan is not just a monarch; he is the symbol of Fulani identity worldwide.”
The picture was becoming clearer.
He continued:
“Every ethnic group behaves this way when their man enters power. During Obasanjo, OPC rose boldly. Under Jonathan, MEND shook the nation with bombs. Under Buhari, the bandits and herdsmen ran wild. Tinubu’s administration should have witnessed the same from Yoruba militants — but Tinubu surrounded himself with technocrats, not grassroots political fighters.”
I knew exactly what he meant — the late Pepper, the late Kemi Nelson, Ajimobi, and others. If those political warriors were the ones in the Villa today, half the political confusion currently embarrassing this administration would never have happened.
Tinubu’s old team from 1999–2007 was built on loyalty, accessibility, and human touch. You didn’t need Tinubu’s number — his ADC, Kabiyesi Oniru, was always accessible. Text Fashola at 2 a.m., you would get a reply. Tinubu taught them one principle:
A leader without followers is just a man taking a walk.
As Lam Adesina often said, “My vote and my wife’s vote alone cannot make me governor.”
Then he dropped the hammer:
“When I heard rumours of a coup involving low-ranking officers linked to the NSA’s office, I wasn’t shocked. The quiet power struggle between Kanuri and Fulani networks is real.
Tell me — how many times have you seen Ribadu step into Shettima’s office?
And do you know Boko Haram intensified attacks the moment fake news circulated that Tinubu might drop Shettima in 2027?
Find out where that rumour came from.”
He shook his head:
“If not for Tinubu’s maturity, some ambitious opportunists would have already created a rift between him and his vice. And as long as tribal division remains this toxic, even Ribadu’s best efforts won’t drastically reduce terrorism. The nation is too polarized by tribal bigots — even the military is not exempted.”
Then he said something that struck me deeply:
“My brother, Mogaji… I see the pain in your writing, and I know you’re disturbed by the way this country is governed. I feel the same. Many Nigerians do. Your platform is powerful. Your patriotism refuses to let you keep quiet.
Remember: the pen is mightier than the gun.
Speak, and do not be silent.”
I told him I had heard him clearly — and I will deliver his message to Nigerians.
Perhaps someone will carry it to Baba in the Villa.
Mogaji Wole Arisekola, Publisher of The Street Journal Newspaper, writes from London.
