After Sunday’s presidential election in Cameroon, the question now is whether Paul Biya, Africa’s oldest head of state — the oldest president in the world — will extend his term by another seven years. Facing him is a fragmented opposition that wants to break Paul Biya’s long, unshakable rule in Cameroon
Overall, the voting proceeded largely smoothly and without significant difficulties, according to Tabouli Celestin Succes, a journalist from Maroua, a city in northern Cameroon.
Biya made a rare public appearance at a large rally in Maroua, capital of Cameroon’s Far North region, a week before the October 12 election, during which he promised to strengthen regional security, fight youth unemployment, and improve the nation’s infrastructure.
In Cameroon’s English-speaking Northwest and Southwest regions, extra troops were deployed to protect the vote following threats from separatist groups aiming to establish an independent state that pledged to disrupt the election.
Incidents in the north of Cameroon
“There were isolated incidents in the morning in some villages near the Nigerian border,” Succes told DW, adding that some polling stations had been relocated to other, protected places for security reasons.
“It was also noticeable that in the Far North — at the few polling stations I was able to visit — only representatives of three parties were present: the ruling party Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (RDPC), and the National Union for Democracy and Progress (UNDP) of Bello Bouba Maigari,” Succes said.
“Other parties participating in the election were not represented at the polling stations in Maroua.”
Around 8 million citizens, including over 34,000 overseas voters, were eligible to cast ballots at more than 31,000 polling stations. Cameroon’s population is over 29 million, 13.7 million of whom are under 18, based on 2023 data from the UN.
Young people mobilized to ensure fairness
Violet Fokum, a Cameroonian governance and elections analyst, pointed to a “significant increase” in the number of registered people.
“We have done a lot of awareness-raising so that people register to vote,” she told DW.
To ensure that voters’ ballots remain unaltered and respected, Cameroonian civil society had already mobilized independently before the elections, according to Michele Ndoki, a renowned lawyer and committed civil society representative.
“Especially remarkable is the voluntary engagement of many young people who developed digital solutions to transparently document and make accessible the election information collected on site.”
Cameroonians want change
Although the results are expected within the next 15 days and there are no voter surveys, analysts predict a victory for the incumbent Paul Biya.
If elected, the 92-year-old would be 99 at the end of his term.
Biya came to power in 1982 after the resignation of Cameroon’s first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo, and has ruled the country ever since. He has been declared winner of seven consecutive elections.
Cameroon’s best-known opposition candidate, Maurice Kamto, was previously excluded from the election following a declaration in July by the commission that his party had violated the nomination rules.
Critics condemned this decision as politically motivated, saying it was a setback for hopes of a free, fair, and transparent election.
Biya’s main competitors are Bello Bouba Maigari, former minister for tourism, and Issa Tchiroma Bakary, former minister of employment.
“This election comes at a time when the whole nation aspires for change,” Tchiroma said after voting in his hometown of Garoua in the North region.
Tchiroma urged voters to remain vigilant and make sure that the results announced by the constitutional council reflect the result from ballot boxes. In a sign of rising tensions around the election, a Reuters journalist saw security forces fire teargas to disperse hundreds of Tchiroma’s supporters, who tried to gather around his residence in Garoua after the area was cordoned off.
Victory for Biya expected
“A victory for Paul Biya is likely,” said Marie Flore Mboussi, a member of Maurice Kamto’s Cameroon Renaissance Movement who supports opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary.
“Mr. Biya currently controls the electoral system,” Mboussi said. “The Constitutional Council, which is responsible for announcing the results, has eight members, all of whom are appointed by members of the ruling party and their chairmen.”
According to Mboussi, Biya would only win “because the Constitutional Council, which is devoted to his cause, will declare him the winner.”
However she emphasized that a victory for the opposition would be well deserved.
“The opposition has worked hard during this election and has mobilized its supporters,” Mboussi said.
“No one has mobilized more supporters than Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Cabral Libii. So it is only fair that, in view of all this, the opposition deserves to win this election. But as we are aware of what is going on, we are aware of the RDPC’s stranglehold on the electoral system, we cannot say that the most likely outcome will be a victory for the opposition.”
In around two weeks, Cameroonians will know whether 43 years of Biya’s rule will be over — or if he will enter an eighth term. The results will then be announced by the country’s Constitutional Council.
